World Cup Fever

Dear Congressman,

Today I thought I would introduce you to the exciting world of World Cup soccer qualifying. Every four years the nations of the world converge on a predetermined country (in 2010 it will be South Africa) to support the 32 national teams that will be part of the World Cup competition. However, during the two years prior to the event, teams representing all of the planet's soccer federations have been playing each other in group competitions for the right to attend the event. Between this Saturday and Wednesday, the majority of the potential European contestants will be determined.

Here is an example of this process.

Group three in Europe(UEFA) includes the Czech Republic, Northern Ireland, Poland, Slovakia, San Marino and Slovenia. In the competition, everyone plays everyone else home and away once, so there is a total of 10 games in which to qualify. If you come in first, you go to the World Cup. If you come in second, you have a play another second place group winner to see who gets to go to the World Cup.

With me so far?

Okay, we are now at a point where all the teams have played at least eight games.

I chose Group three in Europe as it is fairly straightforward. Slovakia currently leads the group and has the best chance of winning it. Slovakia will play Slovenia on Saturday and if Slovakia win or tie then they are champs of the group. Slovenia must beat Slovakia and then San Marino on Wednesday, then they would likely win the group, unless Slovakia beats Poland on Wednesday by more goals then Slovenia beats San Marino, then Slovakia would still win the Group.

Pretty straightforward, right?

Now for the play-off spot, which is slightly more complicated. Northern Ireland can mathematically still come in second, but the odds are about the same as lightning hitting the First Family's dog. If Solvenia beats Slovakia and then San Marino, then Slovakia have this spot tied up, but if Slovakia beat Solvenia, then Poland and the Czech Republic have a shot at the runner up spot. Czech Republic & Poland play each other on Saturday, so the winner is hoping for the favor from the Slovakia-Solvenia game, but if they tie then they are effectively out. If Poland wins, they need Slovenia to lose in Slovakia and then must then beat Slovakia on Wednesday by a greater margin than Slovenia beat San Marino. If the Czech Republic wins, they will control their own fate against Northern Ireland, but only if Slovenia lose to Slovakia. If Slovenia ties with Slovakia, then the Czech Republic has to beat Northern Ireland by more goals than Slovenia beat San Marino.

So there, simple... right?